Are You Delusional?
"There's something about delusions that are really helpful when you want to do stuff that seems impossible." - Aubrey Plaza
Carolina Groppa is an Emmy-nominated producer, speaker, and podcast host spotlighting producers and the human side of Hollywood.
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Delulu Day Dreams
This past November, I moderated a panel at the Proof Film Festival with 3 teams of producers and first-time feature filmmakers. They included Timothy Petryni and Lizzie Goodman of F*cktoys, Alex Burunova and Helena Sardinha of Satisfaction, and Alex Russell and Alex Orlovsky of Lurker. These guys navigated Sundance premieres, major career setbacks, and decade-long journeys to get their first features made.
Here’s the full video!
What drives someone to keep battling for their story, no matter the obstacles?
Delusion.
According to the Oxford dictionary:
de·lu·sion (noun): a false belief or judgment about external reality, held despite incontrovertible evidence to the contrary, occurring especially in mental conditions.
You have to be somewhat “delulu” to pursue this industry. To believe your story needs to be written and told. To believe your film will be financed when the odds are stacked against you. To believe you’ll find collaborators willing to push immense boulders uphill with you. To believe your film will resonate with audiences, provided those audiences even find it, and that once they do, they’ll spread the word, tag their friends, and maybe even make TikToks about it!
“To die, to sleep— To sleep, perchance to dream—ay, there’s the rub, For in that sleep of death what dreams may come.”
The Science of “Delusional Confidence”
Surprisingly, research actually backs this up.
The idea of optimism bias—our tendency to overestimate the likelihood of experiencing positive events and underestimate negative ones—is observed in about 80% of the population. We’re literally hardwired for it. Historical figures like Napoleon Bonaparte, Thomas Edison, and Conor McGregor shared this immense self-belief that set them apart from everyone else.
As did Rachel Sennott. During a recent NYU alumni screening, Sennott—creator, writer, and star of HBO’s I Love LA, drove home this same concept. Being delusional, she argued, isn’t a character flaw for creatives. It’s sort of a requirement.
In Hollywood specifically, this pattern repeats. Aubrey Plaza recalls how as a 14-year-old, she begged her mom to take her to an open casting call at Madison Square Garden despite having “no chance in the world” of getting cast. Looking back, she said, “there’s something about delusions that are really helpful when you want to do stuff that seems impossible.”
The entertainment industry runs on this kind of thinking. We are the mad ones; the ones who are “mad to live, mad to talk, mad to be saved, desirous of everything at the same time.” Every filmmaker on the panel shared moments where logic said to quit, but delusion was the louder voice. Alex Burunova’s debut feature Satisfaction took nearly a decade to complete, shooting across Greece and London.
Alex Russell’s Lurker went from practical greenlight with A24 to having to start new with producer Alex Orlovsky in a more contained script and budget. It’s crucial to a have healthy disconnect from the statistical reality to withstand the trials and tribulations of Hollywood.
The Entrepreneur’s Paradox
The research on entrepreneurs reveals the same pattern and paradox. Indie producers and filmmakers have to be wildly entrepreneurial to get their films financed and made, so I’d bet the data applies here as well.
In a landmark study of 2,994 entrepreneurs, 81% believed their chances of success were at least 70%, and 33% believed they had a 100% probability of success. Meanwhile, in reality, about 75% of new businesses fail within five years. If they’d known the real odds, would most have even started? Probably not.
The same concept applies to audacious filmmakers who dare to make their film.
The median age at which founders started billion-dollar businesses is 34; only nine years after the brain fully develops. Youth isn’t just about energy; it’s about that fresh perspective free from established industry norms. It’s about not yet knowing all the reasons something “can’t” be done.
A recent University of Missouri study on Gen Z found that young adults today are “delusionally confident” about achieving their goals, believing in overnight success with timelines wildly different from previous generations. Researchers noted that while older generations view “delusional” negatively, Gen Z embraces it as a shield against a world that tells them their dreams are unrealistic.
The Jim Carrey Manifestation
This man, whom I cherish deeply and will never forget seeing him come out of a rhinoceros’ butthole (IYKYK), was the OG delulu king. Jim Carrey would famously drive up to Mulholland Drive and visualize himself becoming famous. He wrote himself a check for $10 million and gave himself a deadline of 3-5 years to make it real.
And then he made $10 million* on Dumb & Dumber.
Is that magic? Manifestation? Or perseverance? Jim refused to let reality be the only voice in the room. That’s really hard to do.
*during a time where those kind of fees were actually possible!
We all yearn for traditional success in our creative careers—to publish that book, star in that movie, sell that script—we have to fight to access the genuine belief in ourselves that brought us here in the first place. We have to connect with our child self, love them, and tell them not to doubt the reality they dream of. When we lose access to believing wholeheartedly that we’ll “make it,” we lose our ability to dream with meaning, and in doing so, to manifest. We can’t create the lives we want unless we hold onto an undying certainty that the future we dream of is waiting for us.
The delusion required to achieve impossible goals isn’t about ignoring reality. It’s about refusing to let “realistic” thinking kill the vision before you even try.
Delusion is complicated
An analysis of 62 studies on entrepreneurial overconfidence revealed that while it generally stimulates people to start ventures, it often impairs their performance after the venture is founded. The very trait that gets you in the door can become your downfall once you’re inside.
Think Elizabeth Holmes and Theranos. Or any number of spectacular Hollywood flameouts. Neuroscientist Tali Sharot identified optimism bias as one of the core causes of the 2008 financial collapse, noting that everyone from individual investors to financial analysts ignored evidence to the contrary.
An indie producer understands this tension intimately. We have to believe our films will get made while also remaining rational enough to generate real pathways for that belief to become real. Producer Helena Sardinha navigated years of development while figuring out how to finance her first feature.. Alex Orlovsky, with films that have played Cannes, Berlin, and Sundance, still has to approach each new project with fresh eyes and realistic problem-solving.
Research shows that unrealistic optimism can foster goal persistence, positive affect, and hope, though these benefits may be unproductive if the outcome is largely uncontrollable. The key is knowing what you can control: your effort, your craft, your relationships, versus what you can’t.
The Delusion You Need Now
What I took away is that the delusion required isn’t about ignoring reality. It’s about refusing to let reality be the only voice in the room.
Producers and filmmakers have to master this balance. We needed enough delusion to pitch impossible projects to skeptical financiers. Enough to convince talented collaborators to join ventures with uncertain payoffs. Enough to keep going through the inevitable setbacks and slammed doors.
But we also needed enough realism to make the films work; to solve budget constraints, navigate production challenges, and deliver exceptional creative.
When Lizzie Goodman and Timothy Petryni executive produced Fucktoys, they had to believe it was possible while simultaneously solving very real production challenges.
The delusion isn’t “this will definitely work.”
It’s “this is worth trying.”
It’s “I’m capable of figuring this out.”
It’s “my voice matters.”
In an industry with rejection rates that would make a rational person quit, that’s not delusion; that’s survival.
So, How Are You Being Delusional?
In a world that constantly tells creatives to be “realistic,” to “know their place,” to wait their turn—choosing belief over doubt is a radical act. The panelists exemplify what it looks like when the voice saying “you can” deserves as much airtime as ones saying “you can’t.”
Honestly, in Hollywood, that might be the sanest position of all.
Stay sane, stay humble, and as always, thanks for doing this life thing with me!
Sources
Why do we overestimate the probability of success? - The Decision Lab
Delusional self-confidence: The only trait you need to be sensational - Medium
How overconfidence influences entrepreneurship - SpringerOpen
Delusional Confidence - Economic Motivation
A Primer on Unrealistic Optimism - National Library of Medicine
Mizzou students’ research discovers ‘delusional confidence’ among young adults - KSDK
Optimism Bias: Mechanisms, Implications, and Mitigation in Business and Society - Leadership IQ
This was such a validating read! I tell people all the time that I’m a “realistic optimist” and this article validates why that’s so key as an indie producer.
This was some nice hopium. And it was really beautifully put together. Thank you <3